INP-WealthPk

Targeted Subsidy, Cut in Imports Can Help Minimize Burden of Inflation

May 30, 2022

By Muhammad Mudassar ISLAMABAD, May 30 (INP-WealthPK): Targeted subsidy and a drastic cut in imports is the best way for the government to minimize the burden of inflation on the low-income people, experts told WealthPK. Petroleum products are used in every sector of economy in terms of production and transportation. The sale of POL products has reached its highest point during the current fiscal year. In April, the oil import bill was recorded at $2.2 billion which was 94 percent higher than the corresponding month of 2021 standing at $1.14 billion. To a question on recent increase in petroleum prices, Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former advisor to the finance minister, said the government should have taken the step on April 15. He said the quantum of subsidy on POL products was increasing by day, while government borrowing costs and inflation were rising. The government should propose mitigating factors such as targeted subsidy programs, he suggested. "Now the question is, how can subsidy be disbursed to the intended recipients. The government started a household survey in 2015 that was completed in October 2021 and collected 33 million households' data by spending Rs7 billion. The government can triangulate this data with the NADRA data, smart cards, registered motorbikes in excise, and taxation that assist in subsidizing motorcycle owners, and triangulate this with the public transportation. Furthermore, there is a slightly different way of providing subsidies to agricultural tube wells." Dr. Najeeb said in 2015, electricity for tube wells cost Rs8.85 per unit, which had since been reduced to Rs5.35 per unit. He said it was possible for the government to switch tube wells from diesel to electricity. Tube well data is available in the PICT and WAPDA databases. Furthermore, 4,000MW is generated by hydropower, but a hydropower plant has a capacity of 6,000MW. The government needs to increase hydropower production, he added. According to Abid Qayum Suleri, it was the need of the hour to provide targeted subsidies. He said the data on bike and rickshaw owners was available with the excise and taxation department. "The government cannot set the petrol prices because mismanagement will occur at the fuel stations. It is imperative that a cash subsidy be given to the people." According to Arif Habib, Chief Executive of Arif Habib Limited, the internal sectors of the Pakistani economy were performing better than in the past. "There has been a growth in Pakistan's exports, remittances, and large-scale manufacturing. In order to reduce the current account deficit, the government should minimize imports. As long as Pakistan is not willing to increase oil prices, the government must be able to convince the IMF to do so. The public should also be educated to minimize their reliance on the imported goods." Arif said many petrol subsidies were in the hands of owners of large vehicles, which consumed 5-6 times more petrol per kilometre than motorcycles and rickshaws. Many of them consuming between 60 and 65 percent of petrol, he continued, may be able to afford to pay the full price of petrol if the subsidy is removed. The biggest victims of the no-subsidy scenario are the owners of 15 million motorcycles (and rickshaws), which consume around 35-40 percent of petrol and depend on government assistance to cope with fuel inflation, he added.