By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan’s glacier-risk monitoring system showed stronger field readiness during the 2026 monsoon. Two glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events were recorded in Gilgit-Baltistan but no casualties were reported, as alerts, sirens and community response mechanisms helped limit the impact to infrastructure damage. According to the documents of the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination available with Wealth Pakistan, Pakistan houses over 13,000 glaciers – the largest concentration outside the polar regions.

Rising temperatures are accelerating glacier retreat and glacial lake formation, increasing the risk of GLOFs and flash floods. Since 2000, Pakistan has documented 43 major GLOFs, while eight were recorded during 2021-2025. The yearly record shows three GLOFs in 2021, one in 2022, none in 2023, three in 2024, one in 2025, and two in 2026. During the 2026 monsoon season, 108 disaster events were reported in Gilgit-Baltistan, of which two were recorded as GLOFs. In Hisper, Nagar, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad issued an early warning GLOF alert, and activated the warning siren before the event.

The relatively low-intensity discharge damaged the Hisper Valley Road. In Tormik, Roundu, a PMD weather alert was received, but the valley was not covered under the GLOF-II Project; therefore, no warning siren was available or activated. However, the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management Committee remained prepared and responded promptly. No casualties were reported, though infrastructure was damaged. According to the documents, continuous monitoring of glacial lakes and weather conditions remains in place.

Across vulnerable valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 23 warning sirens and 13 GLOF/flash-flood warnings were activated immediately before events. Local communities and district administrations also received alerts through GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) calls and WhatsApp messages, while electronic warnings were disseminated on more than 40 occasions. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reported no GLOF event in 2026, but remained under sustained vigilance.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority issued four GLOF advisories on June 27, July 11, July 17 and July 26, covering key vulnerable districts, including Upper and Lower Chitral, Upper Dir, Swat, Upper and Lower Kohistan and Mansehra. The advisories identified increased risks of GLOFs, flash and localized flooding, sudden high flows, mud and debris flows, and landslides in vulnerable and narrow mountain valleys, demonstrating sustained GLOF vigilance in the province.

The ministry has also moved ahead with technical risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. A committee comprising Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), PMD, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Water and Power Development Authority’s (WAPDA’s) Glacier Monitoring and Research Centre, Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Development Authority (KPPDMA) was notified on May 18 to identify vulnerable lakes and ensure interventions such as drainage and puncturing.

In a consolidated assessment on August 4, 2026, SUPARCO received a list of 131 lakes from GBDMA, PDMA KP and WAPDA. The assessment classified 35 lakes in the very high/high danger category, 56 in the medium danger category, and 24 in the low danger category. It used PRSS1 and Sentinel-2 imagery, Digital Elevation Models and a Fuzzy Consistent Matrix to weigh risk factors. The documents noted that the classification remains subject to field validation and surveys, particularly verification of lake-damming structures.

The ministry’s listed initiatives include operationalization and handover of the early warning system under GLOF-II to PMD, establishment of a Technical Committee on GLOF Risk Reduction on May 18, 2026, and submission of the Regional Glaciers Preservation Initiative to the Prime Minister’s Office in August 2025. The Regional Glaciers Preservation Initiative proposes scaling up adaptation finance, strengthening regional cooperation and data sharing, deploying satellite monitoring and advanced sensors, expanding multi-hazard early warning systems, and promoting nature-based and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Under GLOF-II, 286 early warning systems are listed across 24 valleys, including 18 in Gilgit-Baltistan and six in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with a total cost of US$37 million. The Sustainable Action for Ecosystem Restoration (SAFER) in Pakistan program includes five early warning systems, four in Gilgit-Baltistan and one in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with a cost of US$1.86 million out of US$10 million. The documents also list two early warning systems in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, one each for Buner and Shangla district, with a cost of $0.45 million out of $9 million.

The NAP project includes assessment of all early warning systems installed across the country, with a cost of USD1.4 million out of USD2.9 million. Another listed initiative is UNDP’s Tailored Intelligence for Actionable Early Warning System (TIAEWS). The latest update shows that Pakistan is strengthening its GLOF risk response through early warnings, community preparedness, satellite-based lake assessment, technical coordination and expansion of early warning systems in vulnerable mountain valleys.

Credit: INP-WealthPk