By Azam Tariq

Pakistan has adequate urea supplies to meet projected demand, but fertilizer-sector experts say distribution, demand forecasting and strategic reserves remain key challenges in ensuring timely availability to farmers, particularly during peak sowing seasons.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, urea availability during Rabi 2025-26 stood at 4.382 million tonnes against an offtake of 3.564 million tonnes, leaving an inventory of 803,000 tonnes for Kharif 2026.

The survey projected total urea availability of 3.847 million tonnes during Kharif 2026 against an estimated demand of 3.364 million tonnes, indicating a comfortable overall supply position.

The Economic Survey notes that Pakistan's installed urea production capacity is sufficient to meet domestic requirements when plants operate at full capacity. Uninterrupted gas supply to two Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited-based plants since April 2023 has helped build buffer stocks and support market stability.

With national urea availability remaining adequate, industry experts say greater attention is needed to ensure supplies are efficiently distributed across agricultural regions and reach farmers at the right time.

Speaking to Wealth Pakistan, Mian Waqar Hassan Raza, Incharge of Distribution at National Fertilizer Marketing Limited, said Pakistan needed stronger strategic reserves and more efficient distribution mechanisms to ensure timely fertilizer availability, particularly during peak sowing periods.

He said strategically located buffer stocks could help absorb temporary supply disruptions and reduce the risk of localized shortages in high-demand agricultural areas.

Raza also stressed the importance of digital tracking of fertilizer movement across the supply chain.

Real-time monitoring, he said, could improve the visibility of stocks and distribution flows, enable authorities to identify emerging shortages more quickly and strengthen efforts to discourage hoarding and ensure fertilizer reaches farmers when required.

Talha Nasir, Associate Chemist at the Zabardast Urea plant, told Wealth Pakistan that maintaining the efficiency and reliability of existing fertilizer plants through consistent gas and energy supplies was important for preserving the country's comfortable urea position.

For DAP and other fertilizers dependent partly on imports, he said procurement should be planned well ahead of the Kharif and Rabi seasons, with demand forecasting based on cultivated area, regional requirements and historical consumption.

Nasir said fertilizer companies and dealers also had an important role in maintaining adequate stocks at regional and district levels and strengthening last-mile delivery.

Provincial authorities should strengthen market monitoring, discourage hoarding and ensure that available fertilizer reaches farmers fairly and on time, he added.

Nasir said Pakistan could consider establishing strategic fertilizer depots or buffer stocks in major agricultural regions through a public-private model, with companies maintaining agreed levels of emergency stocks under appropriate government oversight.

A more structured network of strategic storage and regional distribution is also being developed in China. Under its 2026-2030 plan to upgrade the national supply and marketing cooperative system, China aims to build or renovate more than 100 national-level strategic fertilizer depots and around 1,000 county-level distribution centres by 2030, according to the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives.

For 2026 alone, the plan envisages around 20 national strategic fertilizer depots, more than 200 county-level distribution centres and 200 agricultural service centres.

Nasir said a similar emphasis on strategically positioned stocks could help Pakistan ensure that adequate national fertilizer availability translates into timely supplies at regional and district levels, particularly during periods of peak agricultural demand.

Such a system would also require better information on where and when fertilizer is needed. Nasir said the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) could play a stronger role in coordinating demand and supply information from fertilizer companies, provincial departments, dealers and farmer organisations.

Better district-level information on cultivated areas, sowing patterns and fertilizer consumption would support more accurate forecasting and allow supplies to be positioned according to regional requirements ahead of the Kharif and Rabi seasons, he added.

Credit: INP-WealthPk