By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Glacier loss across the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region is accelerating, with the glacier-area loss rate rising from 3.2% in the 1990s to 4.9% during 2010–2020, highlighting major gaps in observation and the need for stronger cryosphere monitoring in Pakistan’s mountain regions.

According to data compiled by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, a copy of which is available with Wealth Pakistan, the glacier-area loss rate during 2010–2020 was about 50% higher than in the 1990s, indicating an accelerating trend with implications for water security and disaster risk management.

The documents show that 12% of the total HKH glacier area was lost between 1990 and 2020, while the region also lost 9% of its total ice reserves during the same period.

The long-term trend is also reflected in glacier mass balance, which measures the difference between ice gained and lost. According to the documents, 89% of the last 50 years recorded a negative glacier mass balance, meaning glaciers lost more ice than they gained in most years.

The outlook becomes more concerning under high-emission scenarios. The documents project that up to 80% of the current glacier volume could be lost by 2100 under such a scenario, strengthening the case for expanded monitoring, risk mapping and early-warning systems.

Despite the scale of the changes, the observational coverage across the HKH remains extremely limited.

Only 38 of around 63,700 HKH glaciers are being field-monitored, representing less than 0.06% of the total observational coverage. The Karakoram is also described in the documents as one of the least-studied mountain ranges globally.

The monitoring gap is particularly significant because glacier changes have implications not only for long-term water availability but also for hazards such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Climate projections cited in the documents point to further pressure on Pakistan’s mountain regions. The Upper Indus Basin and Himalaya are identified as areas facing sharp late-century warming.

Under the high-emissions SSP585 scenario, the Upper Indus Basin is projected to reach a mean temperature of 9.7°C, compared with a 4.3°C baseline, making it the most climate-sensitive HKH sub-region in Pakistan’s territory.

Precipitation is also projected to intensify. The documents cite an increase of 100 millimetres in the Himalaya and 90 millimetres in the Upper Indus Basin under SSP585, adding another dimension to the changing conditions in the high-mountain environment.

Another emerging concern identified in the documents is the eastward migration of the Karakoram Anomaly. The zone of relative glacier stability traditionally associated with the Karakoram is narrowing westward, suggesting that areas previously considered comparatively stable may face changing conditions.

The number of potentially dangerous glacial lakes requiring monitoring is also expected to increase as smaller lakes cross hazard thresholds. The documents put the current number of monitored potentially dangerous glacial lakes at 131.

Against this backdrop, the 2026 GLOF season is being tracked through satellite monitoring, with 115 potentially dangerous glacial lake locations under active observation.

The documents show that 105 lakes had been recorded as unfrozen by August 5, 2026. The number of unfrozen lakes increased from 24 on June 1 to 40 on June 14 and then to 105 by August 5 as the melt season progressed.

Monitoring is supported by data from the Provincial Disaster Management Authority, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority and WAPDA’s Glacier Monitoring and Research Centre.

The inter-agency information flow provides a basis for tracking changes in glacial lakes during the melt season, but the extremely limited field coverage of the wider HKH glacier system highlights the scale of the monitoring challenge.

The findings point to the need for expanded field observation, satellite monitoring and stronger data-sharing mechanisms to identify emerging risks earlier, improve disaster preparedness and support long-term climate resilience in Pakistan’s high-mountain regions.

Credit: INP-WealthPk