By Abdul Ghani

As many as 105 glacial lakes were observed unfrozen by August 5 during the 2026 GLOF season, up sharply from 24 at the beginning of June, as Pakistan maintains active satellite monitoring of 115 potentially dangerous glacial lake locations.

According to the latest GLOF seasonal monitoring assessment available with Wealth Pakistan, the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) is using satellite-based monitoring to track potentially dangerous glacial lakes and seasonal changes.

The monitoring data show a rapid increase in the number of unfrozen lakes during the summer. Twenty-four lakes were observed unfrozen on June 1, rising to 40 by June 16 and reaching 105 by August 5.

The assessment identifies 115 potentially dangerous glacial lake locations under active monitoring.

Data on potentially dangerous glacial lakes are being provided by three agencies — the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority and WAPDA-GMRC — supporting coordinated monitoring of glacial hazards.

The assessment also highlights the recurring nature of GLOF risks in certain locations. It identifies Shisper Glacier, with events recorded during 2018-2022 and again in 2025, and Ghizer district, where events were recorded in August 2025 and July 2026, as examples of the same locations being affected repeatedly.

Recent events have also demonstrated that GLOFs can occur without significant rainfall. The assessment cites the Hassanabad event of July 2025 as a rain-free outburst, indicating that glacial instability alone can trigger such an event with limited warning.

Another feature highlighted by the assessment is the interaction between GLOFs and monsoon conditions. During the 2025 season, GLOFs and cloudbursts affected Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral during the same weeks, increasing the severity of impacts.

The document also points to the possibility of secondary flooding following a GLOF. It cites the Ghizer river blockage in August 2025 as an example in which a GLOF created a second, delayed flood hazard when the blockage subsequently failed.

The Ishkoman Valley event of July 2026 is cited as another important case. According to the assessment, the area had been flagged in advance by the National Disaster Management Authority and Pakistan Meteorological Department, although significant damage to settlements still occurred.

The satellite observations also show how quickly glacial lake conditions can change within a single season, with the number of unfrozen lakes increasing from 24 to 40 within two weeks in June before climbing to 105 by early August.

The active surveillance of 115 potentially dangerous locations, coupled with data sharing among relevant agencies, provides authorities with an expanding information base for monitoring glacial hazards and strengthening preparedness in vulnerable mountain communities.

Credit: INP-WealthPk