By Ijaz Kakakhel

Pakistan is set to add 1,960 megawatts of hydropower capacity during the 2026-27 commissioning cycle, with three units of the Tarbela 5th Extension Project accounting for the bulk of the planned hydel expansion.

According to the power-generation schedule for projects to be commissioned between July 2026 and June 2027, which is also available with Wealth Pakistan, five hydel units being developed by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) are expected to become operational during the period. Together, they represent nearly 51.8% of the total 3,787.24MW generation capacity listed in the programme.

The largest contribution will come from three 510MW units of the Tarbela 5th Extension Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unit-I is scheduled for commissioning in September 2026, followed by Unit-II in November and Unit-III in December.

The three units of Tarbela Dam extension will collectively add 1,530MW, equivalent to around 78% of the hydel capacity planned under the schedule and more than 40% of the programme’s overall generation addition.

The commissioning timetable allocates most of the hydel expansion to the first half of fiscal year 2026-27. By the end of December 2026, the three Tarbela units alone are expected to have delivered nearly four-fifths of the programme’s total hydropower addition.

Their combined capacity is also more than four times the 351.1MW being added through the photovoltaic and wind markets.

Another major hydel addition will be the first 360MW unit of the Dasu Hydropower Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The WAPDA project is scheduled to achieve its commercial operation date in May 2027. This unit will contribute 18.4% of the total hydel capacity expected during the commissioning period.

The remaining 70MW will come from the refurbishment of Units 9 and 10 at Mangla in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The refurbished capacity is expected to become available in June 2027, completing the hydropower additions planned for the cycle.

In comparison, non-hydel additions listed in the programme amount to 1,827.24MW. These comprise 301.9MW from the photovoltaic market, 49.2MW from the wind market and 1,476.14MW of net-metering solar capacity.

The photovoltaic and wind-market additions were scheduled for July 2026. The document records a June 2026 commercial operation date for net-metering capacity.

The figures show that hydropower will be the largest source of capacity covered by the programme. However, the concentration of 1,530MW in three Tarbela units also makes their timely commissioning central to achieving the hydel-generation target.

The schedule combines new generation with the rehabilitation of existing hydropower assets. Tarbela and Dasu will provide 1,890MW of capacity, while the Mangla refurbishment will contribute another 70MW through two existing units.

If completed according to the stated timetable, the five WAPDA hydel units will provide the majority of the programme’s planned capacity additions by June 2027.

Credit: INP-WealthPk