By Muhammad Zulqarnain

Pakistan can improve population planning by drawing lessons from China's long-term approach of linking demographic trends with education, healthcare, women's participation and economic development, experts say, as the country seeks to balance population growth with jobs, public services and available resources. Pakistan's population reached 241.49 million in the 2023 census, while the total fertility rate was estimated at 3.6 children per woman, highlighting the need to make population planning an integral part of the country's development strategy.

As Pakistan moves to strengthen coordination through the National Population Council, experts say the challenge is not simply to reduce population growth but to ensure that demographic trends remain compatible with employment creation, education, healthcare, housing, water and food availability. Speaking to Wealth Pakistan, Mansoor Qaiser, Communication and Media Expert at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), said China's experience offered useful lessons for Pakistan, particularly in sustained political commitment and integration of population policy with wider economic and social planning.

China began efforts to reduce rapid population growth in the 1970s through its "later, longer, fewer" approach, encouraging later marriage, longer birth spacing, and smaller families. This was followed by the one-child policy, while rapid urbanisation, improved female education, expanded healthcare and rising living standards also contributed to a sharp decline in fertility, he said. China has since adjusted its population policy in response to changing demographic conditions.

Qaiser said Pakistan should adapt relevant lessons from China to its own demographic, social and institutional circumstances, focusing particularly on administrative discipline, institutional coordination, reliable demographic information and long-term planning. A more sustainable path forward for Pakistan, he said, would be to make contraception affordable and accessible, keep girls in school longer, discourage early marriages, expand maternal healthcare, involve men in family-planning decisions and create greater economic opportunities for women.

He said Pakistan's approach should remain voluntary and rights-based, with the objective of reducing unintended pregnancies and improving family welfare rather than simply pursuing a lower population number. "China's experience also demonstrates the importance of adapting population policies as demographic and economic conditions evolve," Qaiser said. Dr Shahzad Ali Khan, Vice Chancellor at the Health Services Academy, said Pakistan's population challenge should be viewed as a multidimensional development issue rather than a standalone family-planning problem.

Speaking to Wealth Pakistan, he said fragmented institutional mechanisms, weak coordination among stakeholders and insufficient use of demographic information in decision-making had limited progress. Population planning, he said, required coordination across health, education, employment, social protection and economic policymaking, particularly following the devolution of several responsibilities to the provinces. Shahzad stressed the importance of developing an integrated and modernised population data system capable of supporting short-, medium- and long-term planning.

Better demographic data would enable authorities to move from reactive policymaking towards anticipatory planning based on future population requirements, he said. Pakistan also needed locally designed interventions rather than a uniform national approach, he said. Cultural preferences, economic conditions and differences among communities should be taken into account when promoting birth spacing, maternal health and family welfare. Programmes should also engage both husbands and wives rather than placing responsibility for family planning mainly on women, he added.

Shahzad called for greater investment in girls' education and human capital, stronger community-level healthcare and improved coordination among federal and provincial institutions. He also pointed to international and domestic examples of community-based interventions. He cited Iran's Behvarz model, which relies on locally based health workers to bring primary healthcare services closer to rural communities, as an example of community-level service delivery. He also appreciated initiatives such as Husband Schools in Punjab, which involve men in discussions on family planning, maternal healthcare and responsible fatherhood, and called for successful community-based approaches to be expanded.

Shahzad said one of the important lessons Pakistan could draw from China was to use demographic evidence in long-term development planning rather than treating population policy separately from decisions on health, education, employment and infrastructure. Experts said Pakistan's population strategy should focus on stabilisation through education, healthcare, voluntary family planning, women's economic participation and better demographic planning, linking population trends more closely with the country's long-term development needs.

Credit: INP-WealthPk