By Muhammad Luqman

Low-cost hydel power generation in Pakistan has risen to more than 7,000 megawatts (MW) due to increased water flows during the monsoon season, meeting almost one-third of peak-hour demand at night. According to the power generation data provided by the Power Division, a copy of which is available with Wealth Pakistan, the 7,000 megawatts came from Tarbela, Mangla, Ghazi-Barotha, Warsak and Chashma, in addition to other medium- and small-sized hydropower stations.

According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the total hydel generation capacity of WAPDA's hydropower projects is 9,459MW. The rest of the demand is met by relatively expensive power generated from coal (27.6%), nuclear (9%), dedicated system (6.6%), RFO (5.8%), wind (5%) and bagasse (0.5%). Hydel power is currently generated and utilized close to its maximum available capacity, providing relatively cheaper electricity to the national grid following the filling of Tarbela Dam to the maximum level and improved water levels in Mangla Dam, noted energy experts.

“The average national demand ranges from a minimum of 17,000MW to a maximum of 24,000MW due to muggy weather,” former federal energy secretary Irfan Ali said. Talking to Wealth Pakistan, he said the demand gap had to be covered by other sources, including nuclear, RLNG, renewable energy, imported coal and Thar coal. “Furnace oil is used to the minimum, while RLNG is available only from the spot market, and its use has been curtailed to reduce the Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA),” Irfan Ali said.

In Pakistan, he said, cooling appliances like air conditioners and electric fans drive massive electrical loads, consuming 8,000MW to 9,000MW nationally during peak summer, particularly on monsoon nights when people use cooling appliances to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures. According to the Power Division officials, the solar boom has led to a “duck curve” in Pakistan's power system, with consumers increasingly relying on solar energy during the daytime and turning to the national grid at night.

“The power outages are caused by higher demand at night, which usually hovers between 24,000MW and 26,000MW, mainly due to the current muggy weather,” said Syed Faizan Ali, energy adviser to the Power Division. Talking to Wealth Pakistan, he said consumers’ over-reliance on distributed solar generation during the daytime was creating an erratic situation at night, when they turned to grid power, abruptly pushing demand from around 15,000 MW to 24,000MW.

He said the seasonally available power generation capacity ranged from 19,937MW in January to 28,265MW in July. “The disruption of LNG supplies from Qatar due to the Iran war has also led to a gap between generation and demand,” he said. The situation is gradually improving as more LNG processing units in the Middle East are being restored. Total installed electricity generation capacity in Pakistan has increased to 49,651MW, up from 45,782MW a year earlier.

Hydel, renewable and nuclear sources collectively accounted for 50.8% of installed capacity, surpassing thermal power, whose share declined to 49.2%, from 56.7% a year earlier. “We are consistently working to increase the share of local resources in power generation to deliver more cost-effective electricity to consumers,” Faizan said.

Credit: INP-WealthPk