By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Increasingly concentrated monsoon rainfall is putting greater pressure on Pakistan's water management systems and urban infrastructure, requiring the country to simultaneously strengthen flood resilience and improve its capacity to store excess water for subsequent dry periods, an environmental economist says.

Dr Muhammad Faisal Ali, an environmental economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, told Wealth Pakistan that Pakistan receives monsoon systems through two broad routes — from the Bay of Bengal towards Kashmir, northern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and from the Arabian Sea towards Sindh, southern Punjab and Balochistan.

One of the most significant changes, he said, was the growing concentration of rainfall during the monsoon season.

“Earlier, we used to receive about 50-55% rainfall during the monsoon in Pakistan. Now, its percentage has reached almost 63-65%,” he said, adding that the concern was not simply the volume of rainfall but how much of it fell within a shorter period.

Rainfall spread over a longer period can be absorbed more effectively, while concentrated downpours can trigger flash floods and urban flooding, causing erosion, crop losses, infrastructure damage, landslides and debris flows in colder regions.

Pakistan also received 22-23% above-normal rainfall last year, he said.

Dr Faisal said wet, dry, weak, delayed and early monsoons were not new phenomena, but excessive and increasingly concentrated rainfall was becoming more damaging.

Citing the Emergency Events Database, he said Pakistan faced 30 flood events between 1980 and 2004, followed by 35 and 39 events during the subsequent two 10-year periods, indicating an increase in both frequency and intensity.

He said administrative and urban management weaknesses were magnifying the impact. Population growth, construction in floodplains, obstruction of natural waterways and inadequate drainage systems were increasing exposure to flooding.

Pakistan's population was growing by 2.5%, he noted, while cities and infrastructure were expanding without drainage capacity keeping pace.

Dr Faisal said nature-based solutions could help reduce the risks, including water-sinking parks and measures that allow rainwater to recharge groundwater.

Keeping natural river routes clear, improving drainage and adapting urban planning to changing rainfall patterns would also help reduce flood damage.

He called for stronger scientific flood-risk assessments to identify high-risk geographical areas and determine location-specific interventions.

Existing early-warning systems should also be strengthened, particularly the final delivery of warnings to vulnerable communities so people receive alerts in time and know how to respond.

Future infrastructure, he said, should be planned around climate and flood risks so it could absorb shocks rather than repeatedly suffer damage.

Urban planning should similarly address land use, drainage, solid-waste disposal, encroachments, zoning, permeable surfaces, ponds and wetlands.

Agriculture required particular attention because crops suffered heavily from flooding and intense monsoon spells, Dr Faisal said. He called for resilient crop varieties capable of withstanding floods and successive monsoon spells, noting that the agriculture sector suffered losses of Rs434 billion last year.

Planning should also vary by district, he said, because areas receiving heavy rainfall required different interventions from those experiencing different rainfall conditions.

At the same time, Pakistan needed to prepare for drought alongside excessive monsoon rainfall.

Dr Faisal described 2025 as a unique year in which the country experienced glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods, urban floods and river floods.

Despite abundant floodwater, he said, an Indus River System Authority notification subsequently indicated an 8% water shortage for the next Kharif season, highlighting the challenge of retaining water when it is abundant for use when supplies become constrained.

Dr Faisal said water management had been prioritised by the government and under Uraan Pakistan. The government plans to double water-storage capacity from 30 days to 60 days and add 10 million acre-feet of capacity, although such projects require major infrastructure, substantial financing and time.

Pakistan therefore needed to manage excessive monsoon rainfall and drought in parallel rather than treating them as separate challenges, he said.

The monsoon itself, Dr Faisal stressed, should not simply be viewed as an enemy because it was a natural system that had existed for centuries and would continue to play a critical role in the country's water cycle.

“We need to learn how to live with this,” he said, stressing the need to scientifically understand how the monsoon was changing and adapt Pakistan's planning, infrastructure and water management accordingly.

He also emphasised the need to distinguish between climate dynamics and monsoon dynamics.

Climate change referred to long-term shifts in indicators such as temperature, precipitation patterns, droughts and heatwave days, while the monsoon was an annually recurring natural weather system, he explained.

Climate change could influence the behaviour of the monsoon, Dr Faisal said, but the two should not be treated as the same phenomenon.

Credit: INP-WealthPk