By Moaaz Manzoor

Pakistan's weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), declined by 0.98% during the week ended July 2, 2026, as sharp reductions in petrol, diesel and LPG prices outweighed steep increases in the prices of tomatoes, onions and other essential food items, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The SPI, which tracks the prices of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 urban centres, is used to monitor short-term inflationary trends and changes in the cost of living faced by consumers.

According to the PBS, petrol recorded the largest weekly decline, falling 19.77%, followed by high-speed diesel at 17.73% and LPG at 12.60%. Among food items, chicken prices declined 1.97%, bananas 1.44%, pulse moong 1.29%, pulse mash 0.84%, garlic 0.63%, while pulse gram, mustard oil and sugar each fell 0.21% compared with the previous week.

The decline in fuel prices was partly offset by sharp increases in the prices of several food items. Tomato prices registered the steepest weekly increase, surging 125.40%, followed by onions at 10.72%, potatoes 10.06%, eggs 8.32% and wheat flour 5.08%. Among non-food items, matchbox prices rose 0.96%, followed by shirting 0.87%, washing soap 0.63%, fresh milk 0.49%, bread 0.47%, rice IRRI-6/9 0.45% and cigarettes 0.23%.

Overall price movements remained mixed during the week. Out of the 51 commodities included in the SPI basket, prices of 23 items increased, 11 declined, while 17 remained unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressures persisted despite the overall weekly decline in the index.

On a year-on-year basis, however, weekly inflation remained elevated at 13.52%. Tomatoes recorded the sharpest annual increase of 238.72%, followed by onions at 80.96% and wheat flour at 68.47%. Electricity charges for the first quarter remained 49.14% higher than a year earlier, while LPG prices increased 44.08% and gas charges 29.85%. Mutton prices rose 16.06%, gents' sponge chappals 16.69%, chilli powder 15.20%, beef 12.89%, bananas 10.53% and bread 9.18%.

At the same time, several essential commodities continued to cost less than a year ago. Potato prices were down 36.60%, followed by pulse gram at 22.11%, sugar at 19.42%, salt powder at 14.09%, pulse masoor at 12.32%, eggs at 9.30%, chicken at 6.96% and pulse moong at 6.06%.

The latest SPI data also showed varying inflation trends across expenditure groups. Weekly inflation increased by 1.42% for the lowest expenditure quintile and 0.86% for the second quintile, while the third quintile recorded an increase of 0.28%. In contrast, prices declined 0.32% for the fourth expenditure group and 2.00% for the highest expenditure group. On an annual basis, inflation ranged from 11.68% for the highest expenditure group to 16.11% for the second expenditure group, while the lowest expenditure group recorded annual inflation of 14.13%.

The latest PBS data suggest that although the sharp reduction in fuel prices helped pull down weekly inflation, significant increases in the prices of key vegetables and staple food items continued to keep food inflation elevated, underscoring the uneven price pressures faced by households across different income groups.

Credit: INP-WealthPk