By Moaaz Manzoor

The Pakistan Stock Exchange ended last week under sustained pressure, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index losing 4,782 points, or 2.72% week-on-week, to close at 171,021.20 points as escalating US-Iran tensions, higher international oil prices and uncertainty over the monetary-policy outlook kept investors on the sidelines.

The benchmark traded between an intraday weekly high of 178,370 points and a low of 169,513 points, reflecting sharp volatility as investors assessed the possible impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation, energy costs and global borrowing conditions.

Topline Securities attributed the weekly decline mainly to the continued escalation between the United States and Iran, which pushed crude oil prices higher and weakened investor sentiment.

According to Arif Habib Limited (AHL), commercial banks exerted the largest drag on the benchmark index, reducing it by 1,369.56 points during the week. Exploration and production companies shaved off 585.32 points, while fertilizer stocks lowered the index by 695.96 points. Cement companies contributed a negative 574.56 points, followed by investment banks with 275.18 points.

The limited positive contribution came from refinery stocks, which added 52.49 points to the index. Insurance companies contributed 6.57 points, followed by real estate with 3.97 points, textile weaving with 1.39 points and paper and board stocks with 0.69 points.

At the company level, United Bank Limited remained the largest negative contributor, erasing 593.84 points from the index. Fauji Fertilizer Company reduced it by 512.87 points, followed by Habib Bank Limited with 255.47 points, Engro Holdings with 246.28 points and Pakistan Petroleum Limited with 203.28 points.

Among the gainers, Attock Refinery Limited added 29.32 points, Cnergyico PK contributed 23.17 points and Nestlé Pakistan added 21.50 points. Ghandhara Industries and Adamjee Insurance contributed 6.99 points and 6.57 points, respectively.

Trading activity also weakened during the week. Average daily volume declined 6% to 696 million shares, while the average daily traded value fell 19% to $99.8 million. Topline Securities reported the average daily traded value at approximately Rs28 billion.

Commenting on Friday’s session, Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Limited, said the market remained highly volatile before trimming part of its intraday losses.

“The market opened on a weak note as persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment,” he said.

Najib said concerns over the conflict kept international oil prices and borrowing costs elevated, encouraging investors to maintain a cautious and risk-averse position.

The KSE-100 Index declined by 718 points, or 0.42%, during Friday’s session. It touched an intraday high of 172,719 points and a low of 169,513 points before closing at 171,021 points.

Looking ahead, AHL expects market direction to remain dependent on geopolitical developments, movements in international oil prices and corporate earnings announcements.

The brokerage also expects the State Bank of Pakistan to maintain the policy rate at 11.5% while assessing external risks and their possible impact on inflation.

Despite near-term volatility, AHL said attractive valuations could support selective buying if external pressures ease. The KSE-100 Index is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 times and offers a dividend yield of 6.4%.

Credit: INP-WealthPk