Moaaz Manzoor

The Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed a mixed trading week as early gains were wiped out by heavy selling pressure toward the close, driven by security concerns and cautious investor sentiment, leaving the benchmark index marginally lower.

The KSE-100 Index remained positive for most of the week before surrendering gains in the final sessions and settled at 184,130 points, down 45 points, or 0.02% week-on-week. Market sentiment stayed subdued as weakening security conditions and selective profit-taking curbed upside momentum.

The market opened at 184,442, touched an intra-week high of 188,312, and slid to a low of 182,792 before closing nearly flat. Domestic security concerns and near-term uncertainty kept investors largely sidelined toward the end of the week.

According to Arif Habib Limited, sector-wise contributions were led by Banks (581 points), followed by Investment Banks (316 points), Auto Assemblers (222 points), Technology (136 points), and Power (111 points). On the downside, Exploration and Production companies dragged the index by 483 points, followed by Fertilizer (439 points), Cement (286 points), FMCG (56 points), and Miscellaneous (39 points).

On a scrip-wise basis, Engro Holdings Limited, United Bank Limited, Meezan Bank Limited, K-Electric Limited, and Sazgar Engineering Works Limited emerged as the major positive contributors. Conversely, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited, Lucky Cement Limited, Engro Fertilizers Limited, and National Bank of Pakistan weighed heavily on the index.

Market activity showed mixed trends during the week. Average daily volumes increased 17.6% week-on-week to 1,014 million shares, while average traded value declined 11.0% to $175.8 million, reflecting cautious participation despite higher turnover.

Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Limited, said the market came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, with the KSE-100 Index declining by 3,703 points (-1.97%). He attributed the sell-off to deteriorating security conditions in Balochistan, where Barrick Mining announced a comprehensive review of capital allocation and security arrangements for the Reko Diq project.

A blast in Islamabad during Friday prayers further dampened investor confidence. Despite the decline, volumes remained strong at 1,266.2 million shares, with turnover of Rs60.2 billion, led by K-Electric Limited, reflecting continued participation from retail investors.

Looking ahead, Arif Habib Limited expects the KSE-100 Index to be guided by the upcoming MSCI review and the ongoing corporate results season. The brokerage noted that the index is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 times, offering a dividend yield of around 5.3%.

Meanwhile, AKD Securities foresees positive momentum to continue, citing improving macroeconomic conditions, ongoing reforms and political stability. The brokerage expects investor sentiment to strengthen on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment inflows.

Going forward, analysts believe the market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with the KSE-100 expected to trade within the 180,000–190,000 range. The 180,000 level is seen as strong support, while security and geopolitical risks remain key downside factors.

Credit: INP-WealthPk