By Moaaz Manzoor

Pakistan’s elderly population is projected to increase sharply over the next 25 years, adding new pressure on healthcare systems, pensions and social protection spending, according to new population projections released by the National Institute of Population Studies, Training and Research (NIPST&R).

The report projects the population aged 65 years and above to rise from 8.6 million in 2023 to 22.6 million by 2050.

Although Pakistan remains a relatively young country, the projections indicate that demographic ageing will gradually emerge as a significant economic and fiscal challenge.

The report notes that rising life expectancy and continued population growth are changing the country’s long-term demographic structure.

At the same time, Pakistan’s total population is projected to approach 390 million by 2050 under the slow fertility decline scenario.

The increase in elderly population is expected to raise demand for healthcare services, long-term care facilities and social assistance programmes.

The projections suggest public spending pressures could increase in coming decades as more people move into retirement age while healthcare costs continue rising.

Pakistan’s working-age population is also projected to expand strongly, rising from 135.2 million in 2023 to 255.4 million by 2050.

The report indicates that stronger labour-force participation and productivity growth will be important for supporting future age-related spending requirements.

The projections also highlight the importance of long-term planning for healthcare infrastructure and social protection systems.

According to the report, demographic trends are increasingly becoming a core economic planning issue because they directly affect labour markets, fiscal policy and public-service demand.

UNFPA and NIPST&R stressed that evidence-based population planning will remain essential for managing Pakistan’s long-term demographic transition.

Credit: INP-WealthPk