Moaaz Manzoor

The Pakistani rupee remained largely stable during the first week of February, trading within a narrow range against major global currencies as easing pressures, steady reserve buffers, and controlled dollar demand kept the foreign exchange market calm. According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the rupee showed limited movement against the US dollar during the week.

On February 2, the greenback was quoted at 279.4729 (buying) and 279.8980 (selling). The rate remained almost unchanged on February 3 at 279.4697 and 279.8948, before easing slightly on February 4 to 279.4233 and 279.8484. By February 6, the dollar stood at 279.4100 (buying) and 279.8351 (selling), reflecting continued stability.

In the euro market, the rupee also traded in a narrow band. The single currency was quoted at 331.3678 (buying) and 331.8660 (selling) on February 2. It eased to 330.1210 and 330.6170 on February 3, recovered marginally to 330.6102 and 331.1068 on February 4, and settled at 329.5772 and 330.0618 by February 6.

The British pound remained relatively firm during the week. It opened at 382.2152 (buying) and 382.7955 (selling) on February 2, rose to 382.6674 and 383.2646 on February 3, strengthened further to 383.1861 and 383.7808 on February 4, and closed at 379.0200 and 379.6078 on February 6.

The Chinese yuan traded within a tight range, quoted at 40.2328 (buying) and 40.2843 (selling) on February 2, moving to 40.3091 and 40.3609 on February 3, edging up to 40.3151 and 40.3665 on February 4, and standing at 40.2789 and 40.3306 by February 6, reflecting subdued volatility.

Similarly, the Saudi riyal remained stable, fluctuating between 74.5103 (buying) and 74.6189 (selling) on February 2 and closing at 74.5040 and 74.6122 on February 6. The Japanese yen also recorded minor movements, opening at 1.8051 (buying) and 1.8078 (selling) and settling at 1.7827 and 1.7853 by the end of the week.

Brokerage houses attributed the rupee’s steady performance to improving liquidity conditions and stronger external buffers. Arif Habib Limited noted that State Bank-held foreign exchange reserves increased by $56.1 million week-on-week to $15.2 billion. The brokerage added that the rupee appreciated marginally by 0.02% week-on-week to close at Rs279.71 per US dollar.

Arif Habib Limited also highlighted that Pakistan posted a trade deficit of $2.7 billion in January 2026. Exports rose to $3.1 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year and 35.0% month-on-month — the highest-ever monthly goods exports — while imports stood at $5.8 billion, down 1.4% YoY and 4.9% MoM. On a cumulative basis, the trade deficit during 7MFY26 widened to $22.0 billion, reflecting a 28.2% annual increase.

Meanwhile, AKD Securities observed that treasury bill and Pakistan Investment Bond yields rose by 15 to 40 basis points in the first auction following the State Bank’s status quo decision in the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Despite improved sentiment indicators, the brokerage noted that market participation weakened, with average daily traded volume declining by 12% week-on-week to 1.2 billion shares from 1.4 billion shares in the previous week. AKD Securities further stated that the rupee appreciated by 0.02% week-on-week against the greenback, closing the week at Rs279.71 per US dollar.

Analysts believe the rupee’s calm performance reflects strengthened reserve buffers, controlled foreign exchange demand and easing financial conditions. They expect the local currency to remain largely stable in the near term, barring any major external shocks or sharp shifts in global financial markets.

Credit: INP-WealthPk