Irfan Ahmed

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased by 23.2% in September compared to the corresponding month of last year, reported WealthPK.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), on year-over-year (YoY) basis, an increase was observed in the prices of food items including tomatoes (127.81%), pulse masoor (79.54%), gram whole (74.48%), mustard oil (71.85%), vegetables (67.16%), cooking oil (65.33%), pulse gram (64.20%), besan (58.47%), vegetable ghee (57.16%), pulse mash (56.3%), wheat (55.31%), rice (39.82%), pulse moong (38.86%), onions (38.27%) potatoes (37.33%), tea (35.57%), cigarettes (35.40%), eggs (35.00%) and milk (28.58%).

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the average inflation for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023 (1QFY23) was 25.84% compared to 8.58% in 1QFY22, and will be 18-20% in for the whole FY23. In addition, the SBP kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 15% to counter inflation.

On month-over-month (MoM) basis, the CPI reading decreased by 1.2%. The MoM inflation was down mainly on the back of a decrease in prices of electricity, gas and fuels, housing, and water.

The most significant decrease was witnessed in the prices of vegetable ghee (4.50%), onions (3.86%), pulse masoor (3.08%), cooking oil (1.89%) and sugar (0.93%).

According to economic experts, Pakistan's headline inflation climbed in September as a result of higher food, transport, electricity and healthcare charges, while this is lower than August 2022 readings of 27.3%.

Meanwhile, the CPI urban inflation increased by 21.2% on YoY basis in September 2022 as compared to 9.1% in September 2021.

Similarly, on MoM basis, it decreased by 2.1% in September as compared to increase of 2.6% in the previous month.

The CPI rural inflation increased by 26.1% on YoY basis in September 2022 as compared to 8.8% in September 2021. On MoM basis, it increased by 0.2% in September 2022 as compared to 2.2% in the previous month.

The SPI inflation on YoY basis increased by 28.6% in September 2022 as compared to 16.6% in the same month of 2021. On MoM basis, it decreased by 1.4% in September as compared to an increase of 5.2% a month earlier.  

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis increased by 38.9% in September 2022 as compared to 19.6% in September 2021. The WPI inflation on MoM basis increased by 1.4% in September as compared to an increase of 3.1% a month earlier.

According to economic experts, it is expected that inflation will come down in October owing to decrease in fuel prices (petrol by Rs12.63/liter to Rs224.80/liter, and high-speed diesel by Rs12.13/liter to Rs235.30/liter).

The government should make efforts to build and maintain strategic reserves to control the price hike in essential commodities and mitigate the effect of supply-side shocks. Further, the government should take stern action against elements involved in cartelization, hoarding and profiteering to achieve price stability.

Credit : Independent News Pakistan-WealthPk