By Ayesha Saba

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), unveiled during the country’s annual "two sessions," outlines a roadmap for innovation-driven growth and technological advancement, which experts say could open new opportunities for Pakistan in manufacturing, technology partnerships and export-oriented investment.

The plan emphasizes high-quality economic development, greater reliance on innovation and stronger domestic consumption as China seeks to transition to a more sustainable and technology-led growth model over the next five years.

Talking to Wealth Pakistan, international relations expert Khalid Taimur Akram said China’s Five-Year Plan framework has always played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s development trajectory by outlining the leadership’s priorities for economic and social development.

However, he noted that the 15th Five-Year Plan carries particular importance because it reflects a strategic shift in China’s growth model.

In the past, China relied heavily on government spending and large-scale infrastructure construction to stimulate economic expansion. The new plan, however, places greater emphasis on raising household incomes and encouraging domestic consumption.

According to Akram, this policy shift indicates that Beijing intends to rely more on domestic demand rather than on infrastructure expansion and exports alone, reflecting a long-term approach to sustainable economic development.

He said the changing economic strategy may also encourage Chinese companies to expand overseas production and investment.

Chinese companies are increasingly looking for overseas production locations. Pakistan can position itself as an attractive destination by leveraging its strategic location, abundant labour force and expanding consumer market,” he said.

Akram noted that the transition from CPEC’s infrastructure-focused phase to a more production-oriented stage could help Pakistan strengthen its industrial base and improve competitiveness.

He suggested that Pakistan should actively promote joint ventures and business-to-business partnerships with Chinese firms to benefit from technology transfer, modern industrial practices and deeper integration into global value chains.

Potential areas of cooperation include information technology, logistics, light manufacturing and food processing, which could help expand Pakistan’s industrial capacity and export potential.

Akram also emphasized that facilitating investors, ensuring political stability, maintaining consistent economic policies and improving the ease of doing business would be essential for Pakistan to attract greater Chinese investment.

Speaking to Wealth Pakistan, Muhammad Umar Farooq, Senior Research Associate at the Pakistan-China Institute, said Pakistan should view China’s 15th Five-Year Economic Plan not merely as a domestic policy framework but as a signal of the next wave of Chinese capital, technology and industrial partnerships.

Farooq explained that as the draft outline of the plan is being reviewed at the National People’s Congress, China is combining high-standard opening up with reforms in foreign investment policies, expanded access to the services sector and greater emphasis on the digital economy.

He noted that the plan includes a target to raise the value-added share of core digital economy industries to 12.5 percent of GDP by 2030.

With China’s economy surpassing 140 trillion yuan in 2025, Farooq said the scale of outward industrial demand, supply chain restructuring and technology partnerships is expected to remain significant.

He emphasized that Pakistan can capitalize on these opportunities only by presenting bankable, export-oriented investment opportunities rather than positioning itself solely as an infrastructure destination.

“Pakistan must offer credible opportunities in electronics assembly, EV components, agri-processing, logistics, data services, biotech-linked manufacturing and renewable-energy supply chains, supported by fast approvals, policy continuity and investor protection,” he said.

Farooq added that Pakistan’s improving macroeconomic indicators could also strengthen its investment appeal for Chinese firms.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the country recorded a current account surplus of $2.1 billion in FY25 — the first in 14 years — while inflation declined to 4.5 percent and foreign exchange reserves reached $14.5 billion by June 2025.

Pakistan’s exports have also shown improvement, with goods exports reaching $32.3 billion, services exports rising to $8.38 billion and ICT exports increasing by 18.3 percent to $3.81 billion.

However, Farooq cautioned that Pakistan should focus on attracting a new generation of Chinese investment in manufacturing joint ventures, supplier ecosystems and export platforms rather than relying mainly on project-finance-driven inflows.

He said the transition to CPEC Phase II offers an opportunity to shift the focus from infrastructure development toward industrialization and export competitiveness.

Highlighting the Board of Investment’s CPEC industrial cooperation framework, he noted that three priority Special Economic Zones — Rashakai, Dhabeji and M-3 Allama Iqbal Industrial City — have already been identified for export-oriented, labour-intensive industrialization.

Farooq said Pakistan must align infrastructure, customs procedures, skills development, energy reliability and logistics systems around these industrial clusters to fully realize the benefits of Chinese investment.

He added that such reforms would help Pakistan transition from a corridor-based economy toward a production and export-oriented economy, which he described as the most sustainable path for long-term economic competitiveness.

Credit: INP-WealthPk