The steps taken by the federal government to address the country's economic crisis have begun to yield positive results in the first quarter of the current financial year (July to September). According to media reports, a significant reduction in the current account deficit has been recorded, along with an increase in foreign direct investment. FBR's revenue increased by 25%, but remittances decreased by 19.8%, exports by 5%, and imports by 23.8%. According to the monthly economic update outlook report issued by the Ministry of Finance, petrol and diesel are expected to become cheaper, and inflation is expected to decrease due to the strengthening of the rupee. Inflation is expected to be between 27% and 29% this month. From July to September, FBRCA revenue was 2 trillion and 42 billion rupees, non-tax revenue increased by 114.7%, and 453 billion rupees were collected in three months.

 The current account deficit decreased by 58% to 90 million dollars. According to the Ministry of Finance, foreign direct investment increased to 40.23 million dollars in three months. The fiscal deficit was 963 billion rupees in three months after a 17.6% increase. Cotton production increased by 126%, rice by 18%, large-scale manufacturing by 0.5%, while the provision of agricultural loans increased by 30%, with 499 billion rupees distributed in agricultural loans. On a monthly basis, the growth rate was 8.4%.

Global prices of food grains, including dairy products and edible oil, decreased, while the prices of some commodities, including sugar and cereals, increased. According to the report, the value of the dollar has increased by 77 rupees in a year, going from 220 to 279 rupees, while the policy rate has increased from 15% to a high level of 22%. According to the Ministry of Finance, remittances decreased by 19.8% to 6.3 billion dollars during the three months, while exports decreased by 5% to 7 billion dollars. Foreign imports decreased by 23.8% to $12.5 billion from July to September.

 According to the Ministry of Finance's report, overall economic activities are expected to continue accelerating in the coming months and year, which may also impact inflation. On October 24, 2023, the volume of foreign exchange reserves was recorded at $12.589 billion, down from $13.09 billion on October 24 last year.

The consumer price index was recorded at 29% in the period from July to September, compared to 25.1% in the same period of the previous financial year. In the month of September, the index was 31.4%, up from 23.2% in the same period of the previous financial year. In the first two months of the financial year, the Pakistan Stock Exchange index recorded a growth of 15.6% on an annual basis. According to the statistics, the market capitalization volume on October 20, 2023, was Rs 7.38 trillion, compared to Rs 6.69 trillion on July 3, 2023. Market capitalization has recorded a growth of 10.3%.

 
Credit: Independent News Pakistan (INP)