Yasir Habib Khan 

Amidst positive trajectories as well as minimum chance of breakthroughs in China-US relations, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden are set to meet current week during the APEC’s 30th summit in San Francisco. Global avidity and fervency are obvious as APEC accounts for about 62 percent of global GDP and almost half of global trade. World can never afford US-China tension as it increases risks for global businesses and investments. Geo-political and geo-economic misunderstandings between these two nations have become the primary high-voltage threat affecting global market stability, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute. World is also deeply interested in the summit as international market, highly prone to get influenced by China-US trade affairs, is keen to look for outcomes of Xi-Biden meeting going to be held after span of one year. Last time both leaders held their first in-person meeting since Biden's presidency on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping will set foot on US soil, it will be his landing after more than six years. Last time former-US President Donald Trump welcomed the Chinese leader at Mar-a-Lago. Terming the “great chemistry” between them, Trump predicted that “lots of very potentially bad problems will be going away.” It is unfortunate nothing happened rather grievances ran amok. Many occurrences gone and much is going on still in between Xi’s two visits: an inflamed trade war, a global pandemic and US’s uneasy departure from Afghanistan, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Palestine dispute– each dealing deep blows to the US-China relationship as it smothered to its worst in decades. Current meeting between Xi and Biden may open a fresh window to brainstorm what new SOPs of relationship may proceed and work benefiting both parties. Their interdependency and interplay of geostrategic paradigms have to be understood to secure world future.

Xi and Biden had already met each other for more than a decade and spent plenty of hours together across the US and China before Biden became President. Their long fraternization is likely to play a role during APEC summit 2023. With rational optimism, starts of APEC Summit 2023 sounds promising as its theme is rightly aligned with China’s global stance for prosperity, stability and sustainability for all. The U.S. has chosen the theme "Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All" for APEC 2023. The long absence of a meeting or dialogue between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden, spanning almost a year, has significantly contributed to mounting tensions between the two nations. However, the prospect of a potential two leaders’meeting during the 2023 APEC summit offers a glimmer of hope for improved relations and a step toward stability, while also aiming to limit expectations. Such a dialogue holds immense importance in addressing bilateral disputes, fostering a better understanding of each other's perspectives, and bolstering a climate of cooperation and engagement rather than confrontation.

Before the Xi-Biden hobnob, China-US diplomatic engagements on various levels going on over the last few months has germinated an ambience for overarching talks between the two leaders that will possibly lead to global unity instead of international polarization. During a press talk, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the U.S. would not ask APEC members to choose between Beijing and Washington. She also acknowledged that while the U.S. was decreasing its dependence on China, full de-coupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies was "simply not practical." While no big breakthroughs are expected and Biden administration officials say announcing a slate of meeting outcomes is an outdated way to measure progress in relations with China, experts have pointed to possible signals of improvement APEC meeting will offer world leaders and business executives to discuss vital issues, and collectively shape the trajectory of a region that holds immense importance for global prosperity, stability, and sustainability.

The Summit program will highlight the potential of collaboration and fresh thinking to build the future through a focus on Sustainability, Inclusion, Resilience, and Innovation. China, as the world's largest developing country and a prominent member of APEC, has expressed a willingness to play a constructive role in ensuring the success of the APEC summit. This sentiment was strongly underpinned by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, highlighting China's commitment to meeting international expectations and actively contributing to the prosperity and development of the region. The collaborative spirit demonstrated by China reinforces the importance of cooperation among nations within the Asia-Pacific, serving as a driving force for sustainable growth and shared benefits. In his speech at the 2022 APEC CEO Summit, President Xi Jinping accentuated China's commitment to promoting a shared future within the Asia-Pacific region.

This commitment rests on peaceful development, openness, inclusiveness, and solidarity. President Xi laid out essential strategies to achieve these objectives, including prioritizing people-centered development, advancing higher-level opening-up, ensuring stable industrial and supply chains, and promoting economic upgrading. Such methods align with a vision of a harmonious, prosperous Asia-Pacific region, where the benefits of development are widely distributed and contribute to overall stability and growth. Experts believe that both Xi and Biden need to engage more to explore collaboration as well as air grievances in the renewable energy sector. Like Governor Newsom’s visit to China, the APEC CEO Summit provides an opportune moment for China to further dialogue with Asia-Pacific and the U.S. on how best to raise “Green growth” standards particularly through public-private partnerships. It is clear that President Xi Jinping's active participation and engagement at the APEC CEO Summit represent a pivotal moment in shaping the future of the Asia-Pacific region.

China's ability to promote a shared sustainable future, foster regional stability, and engaging in constructive dialogue can be amplified by working through public-private partnerships with the US and other APEC member countries. The APEC summit provides a critical platform for world leaders and business leaders to collectively create a brighter and more prosperous future for all stakeholders involved. As agenda of APEC summit 2023 encompasses trade, security and climate, US president Biden has a handsome chance to prioritize climatic challenges issue during meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping taking advantage of frequent trust-building measures between US top officials and Chinese administrations in recent times. Climate issue conversations occurred during U.S. Secretary Blinken's trip to China in June 2023 and Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing in July 2023. In October, 2023 US top official set the tone to make things happen. California Governor Gavin Newsom met with President Xi. Gavin visited the first Chinese city to deploy an all-electric bus fleet, tour an offshore wind facility and see Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

The Governor also signed agreements with leaders of various Chinese provinces to set mutual commitments on a host of climate goals. These exchanges are important as the US can learn from China especially with respect to the Solar industry. China is estimated to have more than 80% of the worlds solar manufacturing capacity through 2026. It is an industry that multinationals and investors alike cannot afford to overlook. Another expectation being attached with Xi-Bident meeting is to see whether or not China and the United States will be able to begin to devise a new framework for mutually beneficial bilateral relations in the face of political contention and divergent perspectives on economic de-risking? Beginning this year, the concept of “de-risking” has emerged as the Biden administration’s preferred economic strategy toward China. This approach aims to reduce dependence on China to safeguard U.S. national security interests without seeking complete disentanglement. China, however, views “de-risking” as a thinly veiled form of decoupling” designed to impede China’s economic growth under the guise of U.S. national security concerns.

China maintains that whatever its rhetorical formula, the United States must not cite security concerns as a basis for restricting American companies’ investments in China and for urging U.S. businesses to diversify their supply chains away from China. The intensifying competition is evident in the increasing number of sanctions imposed by both sides. A study by Chen Wenling, chief economist of China Center for International Economic Exchange (CCIEE), reported that the United States has imposed over 1,000 sanctions on China since 2018, targeting 725 organizations and 241 individuals. Following the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, this trend persisted with at least six additional rounds of sanctions. Despite these cautious expectations, Jude Blanchette, the Freeman China Chair at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in an interview with the Associated Press pointed out that “this meeting unlocks, especially in the Chinese system, space for further engagement in constructive work.”

Credit: Independent News Pakistan (INP) — Pak-China