Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance was winning a majority of seats in early vote counting trends in the general election on Tuesday, but well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls. BJP was in first place on 38.68 per cent with half of votes counted, national election commission data showed. The elections for the 18th Lok Sabha, spanning seven phases between April 19 and June 1, amid a scorching heatwave, was finally coming to a close today, as the ballots are counted. Based on trends released by the Indian election commission, according to The Wire, the Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 241 seats, the Congress in 99, Samajwadi Party in 35, Trinamool Congress in 31, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in 21, Telugu Desam Party in 16 as of 2:10 pm India standard time. In terms of alliances, the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance is leading with 294 seats, above the 272 needed for a lower house parliamentary majority, and the opposition INDIA bloc, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress Party, in 191. Earlier, when only about 10pc-15pc of the total votes had been counted, the opposition INDIA alliance was leading in over 200 seats, higher than expected.

Trends also showed Modi leading first, then trailing and leading again in his seat in the Hindu holy city of Varanasi. The early see-saw trends unnerved markets with stocks falling steeply. The NIFTY 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex were both down over 2 per cent at 5am GMT. The Indian rupee also fell against the dollar and benchmark bond yields were up. The markets had soared on Monday after exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would register a big victory, with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seen getting a two-thirds majority and more. The first votes counted were postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty. This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home. Counting is expected to last several hours as the large majority of votes polled in electronic voting machines or EVMs are taken up after the first 30 minutes of counting postal ballots. “These are very early trends, we are going to see better results as the day progresses,” Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said.

TV exit polls broadcast after voting ended on June 1 projected a big win for Modi, but exit polls have often got election outcomes wrong in India. Nearly one billion people were registered to vote, of which 642 million turned out. Modi said at the weekend he was confident that “the people of India have voted in record numbers” to re-elect his government, a decade after he first became prime minister. Analysts say that despite the BJP’s “roaring” the “400 paar” slogan, the “persisting depression in demand in the hinterland, where most Indian voters live, could have cast a shadow” on Modi’s success, according to the Economic Times. Other factors may also have come into play: a united opposition comprising large and small opposition putting aside their differences to form the INDIA bloc, which appears to have garnered minority votes, could have made a difference, according to the analysis. Furthermore, Congress’s Rahul Gandhi had reportedly made tempting offers — like large cash handouts — to the marginalised and various caste groups.

Credit: Independent News Pakistan