Irfan Ahmed

The sensitive price indicator (SPI) based inflation for the week ending October 13, 2022, witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 28.44%, reports WealthPK.

Inflation in the preceding week was measured at 29.44% on YoY basis, as prices of vegetables surged following the damage caused by the floods. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the CPI-based inflation will go up and will be standing at 19.9% in the current fiscal year (2022-23) against the officially released figure of 12.1% for the last fiscal year (2021-22).

However, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, inflation receded by 0.57% mainly due to a cut in electricity costs.

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), during the period under review, an increase was observed in the prices of tomatoes (194.26%), onions (167.89%), pulse gram (69.25%), pulse masoor (62.19%), cooking oil 5 litre (60.14%), mustard oil (56.53%), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (56.30%), pulse mash (55.61%), pulse moong (53.72%), vegetable ghee 1kg (53.59%), diesel (92.08%), petrol (76.07%), and washing soap (58.03%).

On the other hand, a major decrease was observed in the prices of electricity (45.61%), chillies powder (42.08%), sugar (12.79%) and gur (3.59%).

According to the PBS, the combined index decreased to 204.55 points on October 13, 2022, compared to 205.73 points on October 6, 2022, while the index was recorded at 159.26 points on October 14, 2021.

The SPI monitors the prices of 51 essential items based on a survey of 50 markets in 17 cities of the country. During the week under review, prices of 17 (33.34%) items decreased, 18 (35.29%) items increased and 16 (31.37%) items remained stable. Tomatoes were one of the key commodities that decreased the weekly inflation, with prices decreasing by 13.51% on WoW basis.

Meanwhile, compared to the previous week, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the week under review witnessed a slight decrease of 0.57%. Food commodities that saw a major decrease in prices included tomatoes (13.51%), eggs (2.12%), pulse masoor (2.07%), onions (1.57%), pulse gram (1.39%), bananas (1.36%), and LPG (2.76%).  On the other hand, an increase was observed in the prices of match box (5.65%), powdered milk (3.82%), firewood (2.09%), bread plain (2.05%), potatoes (1.78%), cooked beef (1.47%) and tea (1.24%).

Alternatively, the prices of 16 items remained stable including mutton (average quality), milk fresh (un-boiled), curd, salt powdered 800g, chilies powder 200g packet, lawn printed Gul Ahmed/Al Karam, georgette (average quality), gents sandal Bata, gents sponge chappal Bata, ladies sandal Bata pair, electricity, gas charges up to 3.3719 mmbtu, energy saver 14 watt, petrol super, hi-speed diesel, toilet soap 115g, and telephone call charges. 

The SPI for the lowest consumption group up to Rs17,732 observed a decrease of 0.79% and went down to 210.05 points this week from 211.73 points last week. On yearly basis, analysis of the SPI change across different income segments showed that the SPI increased across all quintiles ranging between 23.40% and 34.25%.

Yearly inflation for the group with monthly income from Rs29,518 to Rs44,175 (Q4) increased by 29.55%, while the highest income group with monthly income above Rs44,175 recorded an increase of 34.25%.  

In the meantime, weekly inflation for the group with monthly income from Rs22,889 to 29,517 (Q3) decreased by 0.66%.

In addition, there was a mild difference between the prices of Utility Stores and the open market (October 13, 2022). The Utility Stores’ prices were comparatively lesser than the open market. The Utility Stores Corporation (USC) is giving a special subsidy to consumers on pluses, flour, sugar, rice, and ghee under the government’s relief package.

The government has reduced the prices of Utility Store’s commodities on a variety of items, including flour 20kg by Rs752.29, tota basmati rice by Rs9.70 per kg, daal masoor by Rs17.94 per kg, chana by Rs1.93 per kg, sugar by Rs17.50 per kg, ghee Manpasand by Rs144.38 per kg, and ghee Handi by Rs111.66 per kg.

On contrary, some Utility Stores’ commodity prices are comparatively higher than the open market including white gram by Rs3.82 per kg, super basmati rice by Rs1.93 per kg, and rice sella by Rs1.24 per kg.

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Credit : Independent News Pakistan-WealthPk