Moaaz Manzoor

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range-bound during the week as profit-taking ahead of roll-over positioning limited upside momentum despite several supportive macroeconomic indicators. The benchmark KSE-100 Index closed at 162,103 points, gaining 168 points or 0.10% week-on-week.

The index opened at 163,078, touched a high of 163,818, and slipped to a low of 160,584, reflecting a 3,234-point trading band that signalled cautious consolidation near elevated levels. Market activity strengthened compared to the previous week, with average volumes rising 37.3% to 1,057 million shares, while average traded value increased 6.6% to US$135 million.

Macroeconomic data presented a mixed but relatively stable picture. Pakistan posted a US$3.28 billion trade deficit in October 2025, taking the cumulative deficit for the first four months of FY26 to US$12.6 billion, up 38.9% year-on-year. Large-scale manufacturing output grew 2.7% year-on-year in September and 2.0% month-on-month, indicating a modest recovery.

Technology exports reached a record US$386 million in October 2025, up 17% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month, and accounted for 47% of total services exports — the highest monthly share to date. The real effective exchange rate rose to 103.95 in October, up 2.18% month-on-month and 6.04% for FY26-to-date. Net foreign direct investment reached US$179 million in October, though total FDI for July–October fell 26% year-on-year to US$748 million. The rupee remained stable, closing the week at PKR 280.62 per US dollar.

Sector-wise performance guided index movement. According to Arif Habib Limited, the major positive contributors included fertilizers (767 points), exploration and production (427 points), oil marketing companies (161 points), power (129 points) and technology (71 points). Key drags came from banks (588 points), investment banks (317 points), cement (202 points), miscellaneous sectors (110 points) and textile composite (71 points).

Among individual scrips, Fauji Fertilizer Company added 744 points, Pioneer Cement 202 points, Pakistan Petroleum Limited 194 points, Oil and Gas Development Company Limited 145 points, and Pakistan State Oil 114 points. Decliners included Engro Holdings (287 points), Lucky Cement (209 points), United Bank Limited (135 points), Meezan Bank Limited (113 points) and Bank Al Habib Limited (100 points).

Commenting on Friday’s session, Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd, said the PSX slipped into negative territory as expected, with the KSE-100 closing at 162,103 points, down 834 points (0.51%) ahead of the roll-over week. He noted that profit-taking accelerated after the index hit an intra-day high of 163,357 before falling to 161,854, while the weekly Sensitive Price Index showed 3.53% year-on-year inflation and a 0.07% week-on-week uptick.

Looking ahead, Arif Habib Limited expects sentiment to stay positive, noting that the KSE-100 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.18x, compared to the 15-year average of 8.59x, with a ~5.9% dividend yield versus ~6.11% historically. AKD Securities anticipates momentum to strengthen following IMF Executive Board approval of the second review, improved credit ratings, and declining fixed-income yields, adding that equities remain attractive at 7.6x earnings with a 6.8% dividend yield.

Credit: INP-WealthPk