Uzair bin Farid

Goldman Sachs has projected Pakistan’s real GDP (gross domestic product) to grow to an astounding level of $3.3 trillion by 2050. According to database of Visual Capitalist, which has used Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, the global economy as measured by real GDP will surpass $227.9 trillion in 2050 of which the majority share will be held by the economies of Asia. The total economic output of Asian economies in 2050 is projected to be $90.6 trillion in real GDP terms. China will be the leader in Asia with an economic powerhouse of $42 trillion followed by India with economic output of $22.2 trillion. Pakistan’s projections also present a hopeful picture where its GDP is expected to increase beyond that of Bangladesh, Turkey, Malaysia, South Korea, Australia and Italy. Currently, the countries which fall in the category of developed economies will no longer be the majority shareholders in global economic output.

Rather, they will be surpassed by the developing economies of today especially in the regions of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The share of developed economies in global economic output will amount to $82.9 trillion by 2050, according to projections of Goldman Sachs. Those countries which are considered as developing economies right now like Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the Philippines will continue to grow at more than 3% growth levels, as is usually the case with economies where the returns on capital are still large. If the same modelling exercise continues further into future, Pakistan could very well become the sixth largest economy of the world by 2075 with a real GDP of $12 trillion in 2021 US dollar terms, leaving behind the economic giants of today like Japan, France and Brazil.

Real GDP levels in 2075

Increase in the real GDP levels of Pakistan could be attributed to the spillover effects from having as neighbours two large economies of the world, namely China and India, and also factoring in the expected connectivity and establishment of trade relations with them. Regarding the long time-frame of the mutual disputes (between Pakistan and India), it is expected from the economic logic that these outstanding differences will be resolved sooner than later. As soon as outstanding disputes are resolved, an uptick in trade and economic activity will be observed, which is going to increase the outputs of all the regional economies, especially of Pakistan, because of its low capital saturation levels.

Credit: INP-WealthPk