Amir Khan

Inspired by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Pakistan is poised to revolutionize its energy planning strategy. Talking to WealthPK, an economic analyst at the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, Dr. Shahid emphasized the need for a paradigm shift in Pakistan's approach to energy planning, urging the nation to discard unrealistic dreams and embrace a data-driven, strategic vision. "For the past 75 years, Pakistan has clung to wishful thinking, advocating unrealistic planning, delayed decision-making, and a lack of focus on homegrown solutions. "There is a need for an analytical mindset, steering away from fantastical aspirations borrowed from the Western models, as warned by the UN trade chief, who notes that the rich exploit the green policies to hinder the progress of the poor," he said. The current five-year plans are criticized for lacking action, plans, and strategy, evident in the evaluation of various projects.

He further argued for transforming the Planning Commission into a powerhouse similar to China's NDRC, highlighting its macroeconomic management role and control over the nation's economy. He underscored the urgent need to break free from the "ostrich phenomenon" and move towards a well-thought-out plan with timely decisions. The upcoming 13th Five-Year Plan (2024-2029) is positioned as a catalyst for change, challenging outdated paradigms and embracing a holistic approach to energy planning. Dr. Shahid advocated for a target-driven, aggressive energy conservation program, proposing a 2% annual improvement in energy efficiency by 2029. He pointed out the importance of reducing import dependency through strategic partnerships and a diversified energy import sourcing strategy. The proposed 5+5 year revolving planning strategy aims to ensure economic security through geo-economics and regional cooperation.

He suggested defining a fuel mix based on the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2021-30), with a target of 60% renewable energy, and strategic engagements with various countries for fuel sourcing. Furthermore, he underscored the need for regulatory changes in the oil and gas sector. The deregulation initiatives include rescinding the Marketing Petroleum Act, eliminating anti-competitive clauses, and dismantling monopolies in the import infrastructure. The long-overdue deregulation is seen as a crucial step toward fostering competition and growth in the sector. As Pakistan embarks on this transformative journey inspired by China's NDRC, the nation is urged to embrace a realistic, data-driven approach to energy planning, leaving behind the shackles of outdated paradigms. Dr. Shahid concluded with remarks that the time for change was now, and the future of Pakistan's energy landscape depended on a decisive action and strategic planning.

Credit: INP-WealthPk