Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan is braving serious repercussions of climate change with droughts and floods occurring more frequently, weather patterns becoming more unpredictable, and agricultural practises fast changing, limiting the availability of fresh water and causing biodiversity to disappear, reports WealthPK. Pakistan is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries due to its low forest cover and high deforestation rate. Its biodiversity, wildlife, and natural resources are also severely affected. Air pollution poses a serious threat to many urban areas, where the pollution levels exceed the safe standards throughout the year. The environment and public health suffer from frequent winter smog episodes. In Lahore, for instance, ambient Particulate Matter concentrations in 2019 exceeded the WHO Air Quality Guidelines by up to 24 times. Pollution has also led to decreased agricultural yields, affecting food security and ecosystem growth.

According to a recent global research "The Economic Case for Nature" by the World Bank, the loss of natural capital will have significant effects on Pakistan's GDP, predicting a decline of 15% by 2030, compared to a worldwide GDP loss of 2.3%. The manufacturing sector is anticipated to suffer the most, with a projected -32% impact. Climate change-induced natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes, directly affect people and ecosystems, straining the government's finances. Pakistan has experienced considerable damage to the public property and essential infrastructure, resulting in substantial expenditures on social protection programs and damage repairs. An example of this was the August 2022 floods caused by global warming, which led to economic upheaval, infrastructural damage, and agricultural losses.

These floods negatively impacted tax revenue, government revenues, and rising social transfer payments. Approximately, 33 million people, or one in seven Pakistanis, were affected by the floods, with over 1,700 fatalities and 7.6 million people displaced from their homes. Vital agricultural infrastructure, crops, food storage, and animals were also destroyed. The agricultural sector in Pakistan was the most severely affected. Around 1 million animals perished, while crops on 4.4 million acres were devastated. Agribusiness experienced losses totalling US$30.13 billion, accounting for almost 43% of all losses. The natural disasters have an impact on the state-owned businesses as well. For instance, Pakistan Railways shut down the main line for 35 days due to the floods in 2022, losing out on both passenger and freight revenue. In contrast, the National Highway Authority (NHA) saw a nearly 25% year-over-year decline in revenue as a result of commuters' inability to use its physical assets.

Grave crop losses of up to 80% were also seen in Balochistan during the 2018 drought, which caused significant food poverty and migration. Similar to this, over 5 million people in Sindh province were afflicted by the drought of 2021, which resulted in losses of nearly Rs100 billion. Since 2010, Pakistan has consistently been among the top 10 most susceptible countries to climate change, mostly as a result of the effects on the Indus system, according to the Global Climate Risk Index, which measures the degree to which the countries have been impacted by extreme weather events. Since Indus waters irrigate more than 80% of Pakistan's fertile land, the Indus River system is regarded as the country's lifeline. In Pakistan, nine of the top 10 cities are located 50 kilometres or less from the Indus River. Pakistan faces perilous economic, social, ecological, and demographic issues as a result of erosion of the Indus Basin.

Even though Pakistan contributes less than 1% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, it is addressing climate change by prioritising mitigation activities in the industrial, energy, transport, forestry, and agricultural sectors. A National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for increasing climate change resistance is being created. The four-year Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme, which would cost a total of Rs125.18 billion to plant and revive 3.29 billion trees across the country, was started in 2019. Every year, hundreds of millions of seedlings are also planted as part of national tree planting campaigns that are initiated throughout the spring and monsoon seasons. The National Clean Air Policy (NCAP), which seeks to enhance air quality in the whole country by decreasing pollution, has been introduced. The country is also making efforts to reduce industrial emissions by adhering to the established criteria.

Credit: INP-WealthPk