INP-WealthPk

Investors Pin Hopes on IMF Programme for Market Stability

May 26, 2022

By Hamid Mahmood ISLAMABAD, May 26 (INP-WealthPK): The political uncertainty and unclear future of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in Pakistan continued to worry investors during the previous week. However, they have pinned hopes on the continuation of the IMF programme for stability in the market in the coming days. Market sources told WealthPK that depleting foreign exchange reserves, depreciation of the rupee to an all-time low of 201 against the dollar and political uncertainty were matters of great concern for the investors. They said that the political situation continued to affect policymaking and sustained economic development in the country during the previous week. They said that issues like fiscal consolidation, maintaining an external account and smoothing monetary policy became complicated owing to those factors. However, the National Accounts Committee's (NAC) fixed expected GDP growth for the current fiscal at 5.97 %. The market ended the day with a loss of 385.76 points, closing at 43,100.70 points (down by 0.88%). On a weekly basis, all share indexes fell 226.33 points. The KSE-30 index fell 174.86 points and KMI-30 index fell 1038.63 points.

Index Week-Start Week-End Change % Δ
KSE 100 Index 43,486.46 43,100.70 -385.76 -0.887080714
All Shares Index 29,573.73 29,347.40 -226.33 -0.765307589
KSE 30 Index 16,541.97 16,367.11 -174.86 -1.057068777
KMI 30 Index 70,522.35 69,483.72 -1,038.63 -1.472767144
Source: PSX/ WealthPK Research On May 16, stocks and the rupee both fell as uncertainty enveloped the government’s economic intentions to resume a delayed IMF programme, forcing investors to seek protection in assets like gold. The government’s unwillingness to abolish subsidies as agreed with the IMF is complicating the problem. The benchmark KSE-100 share index fell 1.88% or 819.14 points, to settle at 42,667.32, nearly a 17-month low. On May 17, stocks were flat as media speculated that the prime minister would address the nation and announce some unpopular decisions to avoid the problem of balance of payments. After reaching a high and low of 42,887.61 and 42,605.11 points, the benchmark KSE-100 share index gained just 58.74 points, or 0.14 percent, to settle at 42,726.06 points. Stocks began to rally on May 18 as political clarity and fresh IMF deal bets fuelled a bottom-fishing frenzy. After bouncing between a high of 43,161.22 and a low of 42,508.30 points, the KSE-100 share index gained 300.82 points, or 0.70 percent, to reach 43,026.88 points. As political and economic uncertainty intensified, stocks swung both ways to close flat on May 19, despite the rupee's miserable double century against the dollar. To end at 42,983.45, the KSE-100 share index dropped 43.43 points or 0.10%. Stocks rose off the flat line on May 20 after the circulation of speculations that the government had agreed to the IMF's criteria for resuming its halted credit facility, bolstering prospects for an economic revival. Stocks touched an intra-day high of 43,185.80 points and a low of 42,938.60 points as the benchmark KSE-100 share index rose 117.26 points, or 0.27%, to settle at 43,100.71 points. [caption id="attachment_67436" align="aligncenter" width="696"] Source: PSX/ WealthPK Research[/caption] By selling its shares last week, the Foreign Investors Portfolio Investment (FIPI) made a profit of up to $6.08 million. Mutual Funds made the most profit this week, selling its shares for $7.28 million, followed by Foreign Corporates with $5.59 million and other organisations with $1.43 million. Banks purchased up to $11.50 million in shares, followed by individuals, who purchased $4.40 million in stock. Foreigners purchased up to $0.02 million worth of stock. Financial analysts told WealthPK that investment in the market would see an upward trend once the future of the IMF programme in the country was finalised.