Muhammad Asad Tahir Bhawana

Pakistan’s national mean temperature in 2022 exceeded the average of 1961-1990 by 0.84°C, marking it the fifth warmest year over the past 62 years, reports WealthPK. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pakistan is encountering warming rates that outpace the global average, with projected increases of 1.3°C to 4.9°C by 2090s based on the 1986-2005 baseline. The influence of El Niño on Pakistan's climate dynamics is evident, resulting in temperature anomalies. Further, according to a report of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), the warming trend throughout the 20th century was estimated at 0.57°C, somewhat lower than the average of 0.75°C for South Asia. Nonetheless, the recent times have seen an acceleration, with 0.47°C of warming observed between 1961-2007.

This warming trend is especially noticeable during winter and the post-monsoon months (November-February). Projections suggest that by 2030, Pakistan's temperature could rise by 1 degree compared to the year 2000, according to the International Science Council. Regarding precipitation, Pakistan experiences substantial inter-annual variation, leading to the cycles of floods and droughts. Mean rainfall in arid plains and coastal areas has declined by 10%-15% since 1960, contributing to the degradation of wetlands and mangrove ecosystems. This situation poses a particular challenge for small farmers, who are vital to Pakistan's agrarian economy, as they face the paradoxical threats of droughts and floods, raising concerns about food security.

Future predictions indicate an increase in flood-affected individuals, with an estimated 5 million people possibly exposed to extreme river floods between 2035-2044. Additionally, coastal flooding could rise by approximately 1mm per year between 2070 and 2100. Pakistan's abundant glaciers— more than 7,200 in total — represent one of the most significant challenges. The rising temperatures, attributed to climate change, have triggered premature glacier melting. This process contributes additional water to already-swollen rivers and streams, a consequence of increased rainfall. Temperature forecasts for Pakistan suggest higher increases than the global average.

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a potential global temperature rise of 3.7°C by 2081-2100 under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5), model ensembles predict a more substantial increase of 5.3°C for Pakistan under the same scenario. In 2022, the plain regions of the country experienced six heatwaves from March to May, resulting in temperatures soaring significantly above the average — ranging from 8°C to 12°C higher than the norm — according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. Moreover, strong windstorms were prevalent in 2022, with over 80 such events, defined by wind speeds of 30 knots or higher, occurring in just the month of March, as reported by the same source.

Moreover, German Watch's 2021 assessment ranked Pakistan 8th in vulnerability to climate change, while the country also faces high disaster risk levels, ranking 18th out of 191 countries (World Bank Group, 2020). Climate strategies are vital for Pakistan's development goals, especially amid ongoing CPEC projects. Timely implementation and integration of climate policies within large-scale projects, alongside awareness of global trends, are essential. To tackle these challenges, key recommendations for climate adaptation, mitigation, and greening of CPEC have been proposed.

Credit: INP-WealthPk