Qudsia Bano

India is facing scrutiny over its alleged illegal seizure of machinery en route to Pakistan, raising concerns about potential disruptions to the robust trade ties between Pakistan and China. The interception, based on claims of dual-use implications for Pakistan's defence programme, has been strongly denied by both Pakistan and China. The incident occurs amid heightened economic cooperation, particularly through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), underscoring the sensitive nature of this disruption in the region's trade dynamics. Talking to WealthPK, Dr Mehmoodul Hassan Khan, Executive Director at the Centre for South & International Studies (CSAIS), and regional expert on CPEC and Belt and Road Initiative, said: “The economic implications of this incident are significant. Industries involved in cross-border trade may face disruptions, impacting the flow of goods and potentially causing financial losses. Investors may become wary in the face of uncertainties, potentially affecting the business environment.” “It has caused a controversy between the two nuclear states on the continent.

India blamed that some material in the ship had links with Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme. However, critical analysis of its shipment’s LCs documents, banking sources, and customs mechanism shows that the allegations are baseless, fictitious and nothing more than merely an attempt to undermine specific businesses through misrepresentation,” Mehmood continued. “As usual, the Indian high claims and its sponsored military and secret media appear to be part of a larger endgame in the region, which would, unfortunately, derail regional peace and stability and hamper Chinese efforts for trans-regional connectivity through BRI and CPEC in the days to come.” Mehmood feared that such illegal stoppage of commercial shipment might slow down the scope, utility, pace and easy and smooth sailing of the maritime or blue economy in the region.

“If commercial activities and business connectivity are under serious attack from India, then it is feared that greater socio-economic integration and connectivity may be disturbed,” said Mehmood. “Such unfounded accusations have started another blame game in the region. It not only degrades the reputations of individuals involved, but also demonstrates the dangers of misinformation and arbitrary disruptions in global trade,” he said. Talking to WealthPK, Khalid Taimoor Akram, Executive Director of Pakistan Research Centre for Community with Shared Future (PRCCSF), said: “The vital alliance between Pakistan and China, exemplified by transformative projects such as the CPEC, stands as a cornerstone for regional economic progress. However, given India's non-participation in the BRI, New Delhi is attempting to undermine the trade reputation of both these nations.”

Akram emphasised that the detained ship was of a commercial nature, and it was important to note that nuclear materials couldn’t be transported on commercial vessels. “Such shipments are subject to rigorous scrutiny and compliance with the protocols established by the International Atomic Energy Agency, rendering these allegations baseless." Additionally, Akram pointed out a possible political dimension to the situation, stating: "With India's general elections on the horizon, there seems to be an inclination by the Modi government to appeal to Hindu voters by leveraging negative perceptions about Pakistan and China. It is crucial to recognise the broader geopolitical context in which such allegations arise." He underscored the significance of the China-Pakistan partnership, stating: "China holds a paramount position as our largest trading partner. Any attempts to tarnish the trade image of both nations could be seen in the light of broader political strategies and should be addressed with a nuanced understanding of international relations."

INP: Credit: INP-WealthPk