Azeem Ahmed Khan

Population growth remains a universal factor that influences all socio-economic indicators. Therefore, any progress achieved will dwindle as the population continues to grow at a rapid pace, cautioned a population expert."Population is the shared denominator across all socio-economic indicators; thus, even if a country attains some advancement, it will erode as the population continues to grow," noted Minhaj ul Haque, Chief Executive Officer of Population Center Pakistan, during a discussion with WealthPK. Pakistan's population has seen significant growth over time, making it the fifth-most populous country globally, affecting its economy in a number of ways. According to the 7^th Population and Housing Census 2023, Pakistan today has 241.50 million inhabitants, with 147.75 million residing in urban areas and 93.75 million in rural regions.

One of the most notable repercussions of population growth on Pakistan's economy is the immense pressure it places on limited resources and infrastructure. Minhaj highlighted that due to Pakistan's swiftly growing population, there exists an unceasing demand for provisions such as food, water, infrastructure, jobs, educational institutions, housing, healthcare, energy, as well as an escalation in pollution and waste. "Our economy is experiencing a downturn, so the most notable consequence of a growing population will be a decline in our per capita income, leading to a loss of well-being," he emphasised. A higher per capita income is imperative to combat hunger, malnutrition, poverty, and to ensure universal access to vital services like healthcare and education, the Population Centre’s CEO explained.

Population expansion, coupled with increased consumption, tends to elevate greenhouse gas emissions. The rapid expansion of population increases the impact of climate change by straining resources and exposing more individuals to climate-related risks, he said. Population growth also leads to heightened urbanisation, as people relocate from rural to urban areas in search of better opportunities. This influx into cities strains an already overtaxed infrastructure, giving rise to issues such as overpopulation, inadequate sanitation, and shortages of water, gas, power, housing, and employment, Minhaj said. “The insufficient availability of these resources may result in demand surpassing supply, causing inflation and ultimately raising living costs,” he added. An ever-growing population adversely affects educational quality, resulting from overcrowded classrooms and limited government funding, he pointed out.

He noted that a less educated population hampers economic progress by impeding innovation and productivity. Minhaj stated that due to rapid population growth, Pakistan will be unable to provide essential social services like education and health. Pakistan possesses one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children (aged 5 to 16 years) in the world. The figures for out-of-school children ranges from 18 to 23 million according to different estimates. “Given the low share of development expenditure in the education sector, bringing these children to school will merely remain a dream,” he said. “The majority of the out-of-school children have never been to any school.” Pakistan's substantial youth cohort can only benefit the economy if they receive education and acquire skills, he emphasised.

The majority of the youth, a significant economic force, are not attending school, are unemployed, lack skills, and remain unmarried. Consequently, they do not contribute to economic growth and have no responsibilities to fulfil. If a country has more children and elderly individuals, its dependency ratio will rise. Conversely, if the share of prime-age population, or working-age population rises and is skilled and trained, it will contribute to economic productivity and innovation, he explained. "Therefore, to harness the positive impact of age structure, Pakistan must enhance the skills of its labour force and entrepreneurs," he added. Minhaj highlighted that Pakistan's total fertility rate is 3.6 per woman, which has remained relatively stagnant.“This means the average number of children per woman in Pakistan are not falling at a pace much desired by the population community. We want it to fall fast.

A high fertility rate at present signifies that the modern family planning is not adopted by eligible couples to the desired degree,” he said. In Pakistan, population growth has expanded poverty and income inequality. While economic development may occur, limited resources may not be allocated equitably throughout the population, thereby widening the gap between the affluent and the impoverished, Minhaj said.The expanding population imposes immense stress on the healthcare system and public services, potentially compromising the overall health and well-being of the people, thereby diminishing total productivity, the CEO said. He stated that the nation's expanding population has elevated the unemployment rate, and impeded the overall economic prosperity of the country. This surge in unemployment might also lead to the proliferation of low-paying jobs, he cautioned.

Credit: INP-WealthPk