Farooq Awan

Pakistan’s year-on-year inflation, measured through the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), recorded an increase of 4.18% for the week ended January 22, 2026, even as prices declined by 0.48% on a week-on-week basis, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The SPI is compiled on a weekly basis to assess short-term price movements of essential commodities. It covers 51 items collected from 50 markets across 17 cities of the country and is used to gauge inflationary trends at shorter intervals. The latest PBS data show that while the current week provided some price relief compared to the previous week, overall prices remained higher than the corresponding week last year.

On a year-on-year basis, significant increases were observed in several essential food and non-food items. Wheat flour registered the highest increase of 38.60% compared to the same week last year. Eggs followed closely with a year-on-year rise of 35.99%. Gas charges for the first quarter increased by 29.85%, reflecting higher utility costs. Beef prices rose 12.75%, while chilli powder increased by 12.56%. Firewood prices were up 10.83%, tomatoes increased by 10.02%, and bananas recorded a 9.94% rise. Powdered milk prices increased by 9.79%, gur by 9.42%, lawn printed cloth by 8.29%, and shirting by 8.22%.

Despite these increases, several items showed notable declines compared to the corresponding week last year. Potato prices fell sharply by 47.26%, while garlic prices declined by 36.28%. Onions recorded a year-on-year decrease of 35.55%, and pulse gram prices dropped by 29.79%. Tea prices declined by 17.79%, chicken prices were lower by 16.79%, pulse mash fell 12.57%, and pulse masoor declined by 9.75%. Fuel prices also showed slight reductions, with diesel down 1.27% and petrol lower by 0.95% on a year-on-year basis.

PBS data further show that the year-on-year inflation trend was visible across all consumption quintiles. The lowest expenditure group (Q1) recorded an annual increase of 4.12%, while the second quintile (Q2) posted the highest year-on-year increase of 5.15%. The third quintile (Q3) recorded a rise of 4.63%, the fourth quintile (Q4) stood at 4.14%, and the highest expenditure group (Q5) saw a relatively lower increase of 3.33%. The combined year-on-year change for all quintiles remained at 4.18%.

The contrast between the weekly and annual movements highlights the difference between short-term price fluctuations and longer-term inflation trends. While the weekly SPI declined, driven by falling prices of selected items, the year-on-year comparison indicates that the overall cost of living remains higher than a year earlier, mainly due to increases in staple foods, utilities, and selected non-food items.

According to PBS, the current week’s data underline that movements in a limited number of high-weight items continue to shape the overall inflation trend. The year-on-year increase of 4.18% reflects cumulative price changes over the past year rather than short-term adjustments observed during the latest week.

Credit: INP-WealthPk